A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
